Do the NFL MVP odds favor Patrick Mahomes’ quest for his third trophy? Can Lamar Jackson go back-to-back and win his second in a row? Or will we see an underdog rise to the challenge in a field of tough contenders? Read our rundown of the NFL MVP favorites for tips and insights on the coming 2024-25 season below.
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2024 NFL MVP Odds
The 2024 MVP odds are already available for you to bet on at the best football betting sites. Patrick Mahomes opened as the early favorite to win. He has some stiff competition from other players though, including last season’s winner Lamar Jackson.
| Name | Team | Starting Odds | Next Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | +550 | Baltimore Ravens (5 Sep. 24) |
| C.J. Stroud | Houston Texans | +850 | Indianapolis Colts (8 Sept. 24) |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | +900 | New England Patriots (8 Sept. 24) |
| Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers | +1400 | Philadelphia Eagles (6 Sept. 24) |
| Brock Purdy | San Francisco 49ers | +1400 | New York Jets (9 Sep. 24) |
| Jalen Hurts | Philadelphia Eagles | +1400 | Green Bay Packers (6 Sep. 24) |
| Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens | +2200 | Kansas City Chiefs (5 Sep. 24) |
| Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | +2500 | Cleveland Browns (8 Sep. 24) |
| Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | +3300 | Las Vegas Raiders (8 Sep. 24) |
| Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | +5000 | Detroit Lions (8 Sep. 24) |
Favorites to Win NFL MVP 2024
Knowing the NFL MVP front runners gives you essential insight into placing your stakes at recommended new betting sites. From the 10 players noted above, we have put together further details of the top 5 candidates.
1. Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes led the Kansas City Chiefs to another huge win at the Super Bowl to end the 2023-24 season. Despite being the underdog in three of the four playoff games, he came out on top with the team. An estimated $16 billion was wagered on the Super Bowl event, with many backing betting favorites Mahomes and his team to win.
From that success, he opened as the early favorite to take home the MVP award in the 2024—25 season. For the upcoming season, Mahomes has commented that team coach, Andy Reid, is encouraging him to push the ball downfield more often. The hope is there for him to bounce back as one of the best QBs of all time statistically.
2. C.J. Stroud
There is little doubt that C.J. Stroud has helped reintroduce the Houston Texans to NFL fans. The team has a certain renewed level of relevance, and they are now the team to beat in the AFC South. Everyone is looking for Stroud to have the same success he had as a rookie. If he and Stefon Diggs can fall in line with one another, some big plays could be on the cards.
Stroud recently overtook Joe Burrow as the second favorite to win the NFL MVP race, with odds of +850.
3. Joe Burrow
When Joe Burrow is healthy, he has proven his worth on the field. Injuries held him to just 10 games in the 2023-24 season. It’s important to remember just how good he is when playing, though.
He has seven game-winning drives in his career, holding a top-tier 3-1 record over Mahomes and the Chiefs. What’s more, he’s had a full offseason to heal. Thus, he could well be putting in 100% and then some once the season returns. Could he be the one to halt Mahomes’ advance on a third trophy?
4. Jordan Love
Some experts have pointed to the Green Bay Packers’ Jordan Love as being a sleeper on the NFL MVP ladder. Yet You may want to have a punt on this guy on one of the top NFL betting apps because his growth in the second half of last season really stood out. In his last eight regular-season games, he threw 18 touchdowns and one interception.
The Packers have been highlighted by some as being the team to win the NFC. Should they have the best record in the regular season there, Love could well be in the MVP fold. His stat figures have been likened to those of multi-time MVP winner Aaron Rodgers.
5. Jalen Hurts
Many people lost faith in Jalen Hurts in 2023. Even when experiencing a bad year though, he still ranked in 13th position in QBR. That came from scoring 15 rushing touchdowns (the most of all QBs) and recording 3,858 yards in throws. Before the collapse of the Eagles, he was one of the MVP favorites for the season.
If Hurts can minimize the turnovers, he can scale the ladder once more. It’s also key to note that he holds the NFL record for most consecutive wins (8) when his team is trailing by more than 10 points.
Experts 2024 NFL MVP Pick – Patrick Mahomes
Even though there are some exceptionally great players in the running for MVP NFL winner, the odds on Patrick Mahomes are significantly more in his favor. Of course, those odds could change, but Mahomes will doubtless be out for a third award to add to his collection.
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How Does the NFL Most Valuable Player Award Work?
Before you use a top sports betting app to wager on who you believe will be the MVP of the NFL 2024-25, you should understand more about it. This way, you can put your understanding of it into your bets.
The Most Valuable Player Award is given by the Associated Press (AP) to the player who they believe is, as the name suggests, the most valuable within the NFL. A ceremony takes place the day before the Super Bowl, known as the NFL Honors Ceremony, which features the award.
Previously, the award was decided by a panel of 50 sportswriters, and each one would cast their vote for an MVP. Ahead of the 2022 season, this process changed. Voters now submit a list of five players in a ranked-choice voting system.
Has There Been a Unanimous NFL MVP Winner Before?
There have been two players who have won the NFL MVP in unanimous decisions before. Tom Brady was the first to achieve this in 2010 when he led the New England Patriots to the best record in the NFL (14-2).
Then, nine years after that, Lamar Jackson threw 36 touchdowns to equal that of Brady, helping the Baltimore Ravens to a 14-2 record and the second unanimous MVP win.
What Happens If the Results Are Tied?
On two occasions, the results have been tied for the MVP award. In 1997, Brett Favre of the Green Bay Packers and Barry Sanders of the Detroit Lions tied for it. Then, in 2003, quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Steve McNair suffered the same fate.
In those instances, the players shared the NFL MVP trophy. With the new ranked-choice voting, ties are less likely to occur, though.
How Does the NFL Most Valuable Player Odds Market Work (And How Can I Make the Most Out of It)?
Few NFL betting markets draw as much attention as the MVP award does each year. With high-profile favorites and contenders considered long shots also involved, it brings its own level of entertainment. But how does it all work? What do you need to look for?
✅ Player Performance
The most obvious reason for NFL award odds changing is player performance. A regular season only features 17 games for each team, meaning that one bad performance can have a huge impact on a player’s MVP odds. Keep a close eye on players’ early season performances, as just a single big performance can have a huge effect on their MVP rankings due to the small sample size.
✅ Team Performance
In a vice versa moment, team performance is something to focus on a lot more towards the end of the year. This is the point when each team is vying for the number 1 seed within their conference or the league’s best overall record. A win-loss record is often looked upon in the instance of a tiebreaker race between two players with similar stats.
✅ Narratives
Narrative is almost as important as stats, game wins, and moments when it comes to the MVP trophy. This year, a lot of focus has been placed on Mahomes and Jackson being frontrunners. The hype surrounding the pair has been rife ever since betting opened for the market.
Yet there is someone everyone hasn’t put as much thought into – Josh Allen. He has the potential to stun everyone and claim his first MVP award.
✅ Injuries
If a player gets injured, it’s bound to have an impact on the overall standings. In 2023, Aaron Rodgers was one of the most popular players to win the MVP award at the start of the season. Then, in his first game out, he tore his Achilles tendon and didn’t play anymore.
The same situation occurred in 2022 with Eagles star Jalen Hurts. A shoulder injury sidelined him later on in the season, allowing Mahomes to put on an MVP-winning display.
Past NFL MVP Winners and Their Starting Odds
The NFL MVP history dates to 1938 in its original format, while in its current format from the AP, it dates to 1957. Jim Brown won that first award in ’57, and here is a list of the previous 10 NFL MVP winners and their season starting odds.
| Year | MVP Winner | Previous MVP Starting Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Lamar Jackson | +1600 |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes | +700 |
| 2021 | Aaron Rodgers | +800 |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers | +3000 |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson | +4000 |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | +3525 |
| 2017 | Tom Brady | +385 |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan | +7500 |
| 2015 | Cam Newton | +5200 |
| 2014 | Aaron Rodgers | +600 |
How to Predict an MVP – Key Facts, Figures, and Trends
So, what do you need to know to help with predicting the NFL MVP 2024? Here is some insight into figuring out which player is more likely to win.
Player Position
If you look back in history, the MVP NFL winner is usually a quarterback. Thus, it is always worth considering them as a frontrunner for winning the award. That is unless there is a particularly big breakout star playing in a different position, such as a running back.
QBs have won 48 of the 69 MVP awards, with running back claiming 13 of them. The last time a defensive player won MVP was in 1986.
| Player Position | Number of NFL MVP Wins |
|---|---|
| Quarterback | 48 |
| Running Back | 13 |
| Full Back | 4 |
| Half Back | 1 |
| Kicker | 1 |
| Defensive Tackle | 1 |
| Linebacker | 1 |
Average Age
Since 1957, when the first AP MVP award was handed out, the average age for winners has been 29. Of the 69 winners, 36 of them were aged between 26 and 31. That’s useful information to take forward into your MVP betting activity.
Of the last seven winners, three of them were between 37 and 40 years old, with the others being between 22 and 27.
Jim Brown, the league’s first-ever AP MVP winner, was the youngest in history at age 21. He won the award two more times. Tom Brady won his third MVP trophy at age 40 in 2017.
Player Stats That Matter Most for MVPs
The recent MVP winners have all had one thing in common as QBs – massive passing yards on the field. Mahomes set the record for that in 2022 with 5,614 yards. Even so, voters have put a lot of emphasis on touchdowns and efficiency in the game.
15 of the last 27 QBs to win the MVP award also led the league in terms of touchdown passes. Eighteen of them led in touchdown rate.
Furthermore, 14 of the last 17 winners also ranked in the top three in QBR.
Team Win Percentage
It’s not just about individual players, though. Team success contributes a lot to the NFL regular season MVP standings.
Since 1997 when Barry Sanders won with the Detroit Lions, every winner of the MVP award has played on a team with double-digit wins. A total of 23 of those 27 teams won at least 12 games.
No MVP winner ever played for a team that had a losing record. Johnny Unitas and O.J. Simpson in 1967 and 1973, respectively, are the only two winners to miss the postseason.
Some teams have historically done better at producing MVP winners too, as the table below highlights.
| NFL Team | NFL MVP Awards Won |
|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 10 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 5 |
| Cleveland Browns | 4 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 4 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4 |
| New England Patriots | 3 |
| Washington Commanders | 3 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 3 |
The Best Betting Strategy for NFL Futures
Whether you’re engaging in pre-season futures betting or live betting on the top sportsbooks, it’s important to have a proper strategy. Here are some of the top insights into betting strategy for MVP betting.
✅ Change with the Season
While it’s true that some futures must be wagered before the first game of the season, others can be staked later. The variance will change throughout the year. Favorites are often highlighted at the start of the season, with dark horses coming through at a later time.
✅ Keep an Eye on the Underdogs
Everyone loves an underdog. Matt Ryan was a huge underdog when he entered the 2016 season with starting odds of +7500. It didn’t take him long to become one of the biggest long-shot MVP winners of recent times. He claimed his first MVP award with 4,944 passing yards and 38 touchdowns.
It’s not beyond the bounds of underdog players to come through and win the MVP. Track younger players or those coming back from injury, as they often feel they have something to prove on the field.
✅ Follow the Voters
The award winner is decided by the 50 voters, which is why you need to follow them. They are influenced by narratives and stories, not just the statistics provided on each player. Public opinion and any media coverage of players can both shape the outcome of the MVP trophy winner.
Read the sports news and see which NFL players are being talked about the most. Who does the public like? Who are the voters most likely to see at the forefront of all football media coverage?