Professional gambler and author Michael Kaplan shares his personal experience with card counting. In this guide, you’ll find genuine tips on how to count cards, an effective basic strategy for blackjack, helpful advice, and an overview of the wins and losses you might face while counting cards.
Hear from Michael directly below as he outlines what you need to card count as a beginner or a seasoned blackjack player, the legality of it, and the truth behind it all. Whether you’re new to counting, or looking to improve, you’ll want to read this.
How to Count Cards in Blackjack – Step by Step
For starters, you need to learn to play basic strategy. This is a system doped out by four guys in the US military during the late 1950s. They did it with pencils, papers and calculators. Miraculously, basic strategy is a mode of playing that has held up, even as people with much more advanced technology ran the numbers to insure that they made sense. They do.
1. Learn Basic Blackjack Strategy
This is the way that everyone should be playing blackjack at an online casino or in person. Basic strategy tells you all the correct plays with any hand you might have. Actions are based on the player’s cards and the dealer’s up card.
For example, you always double down with a 9 vs the dealer’s 3 through 6 (hit against everything else). Faced with a 12, you hit against 2 or 3, stand against 4 – 6, hit against 7 – Ace. And you split 8s, no matter what the dealer has (people, including me, find this to be terrifying when the dealer shows an Ace or a 10-value card, but it is what makes mathematical sense).
The Basics of Blackjack
- Cards in Blackjack are given a negative, zero, or positive value by the player.
- As the round plays on, the player keeps a running count of the cards that have been dealt to themselves as well as other players at the table, if there are any.
- With confidence in the so-called true count, the player then decides whether he or she should increase the bets.
- As the game progresses and fewer cards are left in the shoe, the player updates the true count and continues to place bets that reflect this figure.
Basic strategy is best learned by memorizing the plays on a basic blackjack strategy chart. Much of it is common sense, a lot of it is easily memorized, some of it will take bit of practice.
If you’re new to blackjack, We suggest that you start by reading through our guide on how to play blackjack online. Once you’ve got the basics down, you can practice playing blackjack for free before placing real money bets.
2. Make it Count – Learn The Card Values
After basic strategy becomes second nature, it is time to actually learn to count cards and their value. You don’t need to remember all the cards that have been dealt, which is what a lot people mistakenly believe. That would make things way harder than they need to be.
Instead, employing what is known as the “high-low strategy,” (also referred to as hi-lo strategy) where you merely add and subtract 1s.
Hi-Lo Card Strategy Card Values
Cards that are 2 – 6 count as +1
Cards that are 7, 8 and 9 are neutral and count as zero.
Cards that are 10-value – Ace count as negative 1.
The point here is that the more 10 – Ace cards remain in the deck, the more advantageous it is for the player. That information is expressed by the running count.
The higher the running count is, the more 2 – 6 cards have been dealt and, as a function of that, the deck is richer in cards denominated at 10 – Ace. A good way to learn card counting is to shuffle a deck and actually count through it, adding and subtracting ones.
3. Learn When to Deviate from The Norm
Indexes, or deviations, as I prefer to call them, are moves that override basic strategy, based on the count.
For example, if you have 15 against the dealer’s 10 value card, basic strategy says to hit. But, if you are card counting, and the count is +4 or higher, the correct play is to stand. That is because the deck is rich enough in 10s that there is a high probability of busting if you hit.
All told, there are some 80 deviations.
The good news is that you have to remember only 18 of them. Devised by a blackjack player and theoretician by the name of Don Schlesinger, these are known as the illustrious 18.
Deviations & Strategy in Blackjack
These are the deviations for shoe games of 6 or 8 decks; for single- and double-deck games, the deviations are slightly different:
| The Count | What To Do |
| If the count is +3 or higher | Take insurance –
That is, when the dealer has an Ace showing, you put up half your bet. If the dealer has blackjack, you break even on your original bet and the insurance bet is returned; if the dealer does not have blackjack, you lose the insurance bet and play your hand as your ordinarily would. |
| If the count is zero or higher | Stick with 16 against a dealer’s 10-value card |
| If the count is +4 or higher | Stick with 15 against a dealer’s 10-value card |
| If the count is +5 or higher | Split 10-value cards against a dealer’s 5
Note that splitting 10s is a high value play, but it will likely rouse suspicion in the pit and cause players at the table to freak out, accusing you of “messing up the shoe,” which, of course, is nonsense. |
| If the count is +4 or higher | Split 10s against a dealer’s 6
See the parenthetical above. It applies here as well |
| If the count is +4 or higher | Double with 10 against the dealer’s 10-value card |
| If the count is +2 or higher | Stand with 12 against the dealer’s 3 |
| If the count is +3 or higher | Stand with 12 against the dealer’s 2 |
| If the count is +1 or higher | Double with 11 against the dealer’s Ace |
| If the count is +1 or higher | Double with 9 against the dealer’s 2 |
| If the count is +4 or higher | Double with 10 against the dealer’s Ace |
| If the count is +3 or higher | Double down with 9 against the dealer’s 7 |
| If the count is +5 or higher | Stand with 16 against the dealer’s 9 |
| If the count is -1 or lower | Hit with 13 against the dealer’s 2 |
| If the count is zero or lower | Hit with 12 against the dealer’s 4 |
| If the count is -2 or lower | Hit with 12 against the dealer’s 5 |
| If the count is -1 or lower | Hit with 12 against the dealer’s 6 |
| If the count is -2 | Hit with 13 against the dealer’s 3 |
The Fab 4 Deviations Strategy
In addition to deviations mentioned above, there are four deviations for surrendering (known as the Fab 4).
This is an acknowledgment that you will probably lose the hand, so you take back half your bet and surrender the other half to the casino. As per basic strategy, you always surrender 16 against the dealer’s 9, 10-value card or Ace.
When card counting, you do it in these situations as well:
- If the count is +3 or higher and you have 14 against the dealer’s 10-value card.
- If the count is zero or higher and you have 15 against the dealer’s 10-value card.
- If the count is +2 or higher and you have 15 against the dealer’s 9.
- If the count is +1 or higher and you have 15 against the dealer’s Ace.
4. Learn The Play Mechanics
Congratulations! You now have the strategies under control. Next we attack the play mechanics. These include converting the running count to a true count and your betting plan (that’s the fun part).
For starters, let’s assume you are playing in a casino that deals the cards out of a six deck shoe. This means that the game begins with 312 cards. Having, say, a +6 running-count when there are five complete decks left to play (that would be 260 cards) and having a +6 count when there just two decks (or 104 cards) left to play are very different. At five decks, the +6 has a pretty small amount of value. But at two decks it has much more value. So, we do a round of division to reflect that and to arrive at the true count. In the above scenario, when there are five decks left to go, we divide the running count by 5. That would result in a true count of +1.2. When there are just two decks left to play, we get a true count of +3. Playing with +3 is a lot stronger than playing with +1.2. You’ll figure out how many decks are left to play by looking at the discard tray. That is the tall plastic rectangle into which the dealer stacks cards that have already been played. You need to learn to visually recognize one through six decks in the discard try.
How To Spread Your Bets – Counting Cards in Blackjack
| The Count | What To Do |
| True count of +1 or lower | Bet 1 unit |
| True count of +2 or higher | Bet 2 units |
| True count of +3 or higher | Bet 4 units |
| True count of +4 of higher | Bet 8 units |
| True count of +5 or higher | Bet 15 units |
Of course, there is some flexibility in here. You don’t want to seem robotic. So, if you have a count of +3, you win a hand and the count does not change, you can throw a couple of extra units into the betting circle.
How To Perfect Your Card Counting Strategy
To perfect your blackjack strategy, I would combine and perfect all of this at home before going to a casino. One way to do it would be to work with a friend on learning the fundamentals of card counting. Then you can take turns dealing hands of blackjack to one another.
I got a little lucky with this and was taught card counting by a seasoned player named Rick Blaine (he authored a book called “Blackjack Blueprint”).
What’s it Like Card Counting in Real Life?
Card counting at blackjack is a hell of a lot of fun. I’ve done it at high stakes while playing on the team. On my own, I’m likely to do it for minuscule stakes in downtown Las Vegas.
Either way, I find it relaxing and intriguing. It’s fun to watch the flow of cards, with the count rising up and down like a tide. There’s also something to be said for the ego stroke that comes from sitting at a table and knowing that you understand the game at a level that one else who’s there – usually, including the dealer – actually does.
Challenges When Card Counting in Real Life
There’ve been many times when dealers offer advice, which is dead wrong, even from a basic strategy standpoint. I generally respond by crinkling my eyes, like I’m taking the suggestion to heart, and then do what I know is the right thing.
Even when it looks like the wrong thing, such as hitting with 13 against the dealer’s 2 because the count is -1.
When Things Go Right
Turning things around, grinding back from a losing session, is particularly rewarding. I played in Monte Carlo on a couple of occasions, both times as respites from playing the better games in Cannes and Nice. The guys running the blackjack team told me to go up there and take a shot.
Monte Carlo rules were the same as those in Atlantic City (not very good). But I stayed at Hotel de Paris on a comp, and it ranks among the nicest hotels I’ve been to.
When I emailed a snooty editor friend that I was there, he responded by writing, “You lucky bastard.”
He was right, in more ways than he realized. After hitting a costly and unfortunate losing streak, things turned around and I couldn’t help but win. I left the casino with a single chip: a rectangle, known as a plaque, which was worth 25,000 euros. After wrapping up, I supped on a comped dinner at Alain Ducasse’s fabulous Louis XV, enjoyed a Montecristo No 2 Cuban cigar with a glass of cognac and photographed myself holding up that 25,000 euro plaque.
It was an excellent session. Others are not so good.
When Things Go South
During a particularly bad run at Wynn Las Vegas, my brother saw me playing from about 10 feet away. Nothing was going right, great hands turned into dogs and my $1,000 chips diminished to what gamblers like to call quarters. He saw it all go down and offered one comment: “Dude, you keep hitting yourself in the head every time you lose.”
He was right. I was miserable. Not so much because I was dropping money, but more because hands that should have been winners turned into losers.
Even worse: What later on proved to be my final period of play at the Wynn.
The Truth About Card Counting – Movies vs Reality
Learning to card count is easy. Pulling it off in the casino? Well…
We’ve all seen the elaborate card counting scenes in attention-grabbing, gambling-tinged movies.
- Rain Man has the character played by Dustin Hoffman, Raymond “Rain Man” Babbit, using his savant syndrome to count cards.
- In ‘The Hangover’ card counting’s trickiness is illustrated by complicated mathematics that are super-imposed over Zach Galifianakis’s Alan as he crushes the casino.
- In ’21’, adapted from liberty-taking book ‘Bringing Down the House’, one gets the impression that you have to be MIT smart in order to card count and never lose.
Counting Cards In Real Life – The Good News
I’ve had game killing sessions. Like the time in the Bahamas when the count soared through the roof and everything went as it should. I was betting two spots of $1,500, double-downs drew the 10s I needed, stiff hands were helped out by serious luck.
The dealer busted when I stood against his 16s.
A crowd formed around me and people began back-betting – that is, putting up chips and betting that I’d continue to beat the house.
I did. It worked! By the time the dealer dealt his last hand of the shoe, chips were stacked high, folks were cheering and the table felt like it might levitate from all the energy.
That’s the good news.
What You Should Know About Card Counting – The Bad News
The bad news is, unlike what the movies would have you believe, card counting is not a license to print money. Play perfectly, make no mistakes, take advantage of every opportunity and you will be playing at a 1 percent advantage.
Theoretically that is great. Just do the math:
Let’s say your average bet is $500 and you play 100 hands per hour. With decent rules and penetration, you should be able to earn $500 per hour.
If you commit to card counting, bet units of $100 (the $100 minimum tables will get you the best rules), have a $40,000 bankroll and average five hours per week for some 17 months, you should smooth the variance and make your $500 per hour. Of course, should is the operative word here. A lot of bad things can happen with a 1 percent edge.
Maybe that explains why James Grosjean, a very sharp gambler who exploits things that are way more profitable and way more difficult than card counting, has cheekily described one counter’s profession as her “gambling habit.”
But who cares what he thinks.
Is Card Counting Illegal?
Card counting is not illegal, but casinos do not like when people do it.
If they figure that it’s what you’re up to, they tell you that you can no longer play blackjack. Casino security keeps your picture and the fun stops.
Understand the Risks: Consequences of Getting Caught Card Counting
Casino Ban
The most common consequence of being caught card counting is a casino ban. If a player is suspected of counting cards, the casino may ask them to leave and refuse future entry. This ban could extend to other properties owned by the same casino group, limiting the player’s options for gambling.
Casino Surveillance and Countermeasures
Some casinos employ sophisticated surveillance systems and countermeasures to detect potential card counters. These measures can include using facial recognition technology, analyzing betting patterns, and monitoring player behavior. If a player is identified as a card counter, the casino may take action against them.
Legal Action
While rare, there have been instances where casinos have taken legal action against individuals they believe to be engaged in card counting. These cases are often based on accusations of fraud or unfair advantage. Legal consequences can range from fines to more severe penalties, depending on local laws and regulations.
Legal Aspects of Card Counting in Various Regions: Know Your Rights
Card Counting in The United States
Card counting is generally legal in the United States. However, individual casinos have the right to refuse service to any player they suspect of counting cards, and they may ban such players from their premises. While there are no federal laws against card counting, players should be aware of casino policies and the potential risks associated with this strategy.
Europe.
In most European countries, card counting is legal, and players are generally allowed to employ this strategy in casinos. However, just like in the United States, casinos reserve the right to ban players they believe are counting cards, even if it is not explicitly illegal in the region.
Card Counting in Asia
In countries like China, India, Singapore, and Malaysia, where gambling is legally permitted, there are no specific regulations against card counting. However, individual casinos may have their own policies regarding card counting and can take actions against players they suspect of using this strategy.
Responsible Gaming and Fair Play
Understanding the difference between advantage play and cheating underscores the importance of responsible gaming and maintaining the integrity of casino experiences. While card counting is a legitimate strategy, it’s essential to approach it ethically and within the boundaries set by the casino.
By embracing a responsible approach to gaming and upholding ethical standards, players can ensure that their actions remain aligned with the spirit of fair competition within the casino arena.