Luzmo’s Octopus AI is a match simulator built for the UEFA Euro soccer championship that performs play-by-play simulations, taking into consideration offensive ratings, defensive ratings, and more.
It’s reminiscent of the international sensation Paul the Octopus who gained popularity for his accuracy in determining the winners in the 2010 World Cup.
But how accurate will the AI predictions be for the UEFA Euro matches?
AI Match Predictions And Their Accuracy So Far
The new AI tool outputs a probability % of how many potential targets and expected goals a given team would be able to achieve when matched up against another team. How does this match up against reality?
Our experts assess the predictions so far based on Luzmo’s AI Octopus probabilities and upcoming matches below:
Euros 2024 Outright Winners AI Predictions VS Expert Opinions
Read on as we review the Octopus AI probabilities and what we predict will happen.
Spain to Win Euro 2024
Octopus AI Probability
65.6% probability to win the tournament according to AI after the Euro 2024 semi-finals.
Expert Opinion
Spain is the only nation to win back-to-back titles in 2008 and 2012. They trashed Croatia 3-0 in the first game to take an early lead in the group of death. The Spaniards have superstar midfielder Rodri, who’s definitely one to watch.
After a comprehensive 1-0 victory over Italy in the second game and finishing top of the group, Spain looks to have a good course to the final despite starting the tournament at fourth place in the sportsbook odds.
A match-up with Georgia in the round of 16 was a mere formality and they dispatched host side Germany in the quarter-finals. Spain defeated France in the semi-final and the team looks like the strong favorites to defeat England in the final on Sunday.
Best Odds: BetOnline
England
Octopus AI Probability
Despite a lot of people thinking it’s coming home this year, according to the AI Octopus England has a 34.4% chance of winning the Championship.
Expert Opinion
If Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane are in top form, there will be some exciting matches to watch, but we don’t think they’ll make it out as champions. They’ll put up a good fight, and we’ll see some thrilling matches, that’s no doubt. There will be some profitable betting opportunities too with over and under in their matches, and a good number of corners.
They have come in for criticism following lackluster performances so far in the tournament. However, they overcame the Netherlands in the semi-final and anything could happen in the final against Spain.
Best Odds: XBet
All Octopus AI Team Probabilities
If you’re looking to couple your betting decisions with AI Octopus probabilities, you’ll want to do so at the best soccer betting sites to get the best odds and offers while you do it.
Below is a screenshot of all the probabilities as it stands after the semi-finals:
How Does Octopus AI work?
According to Luzmo’s CTO, Haroen Vermylen, the company used something similar to a Monte Carlo model, which is a model to predict the probability of a variety of outcomes when the potential for random variables is present. The AI simulated the Euros a million times to determine the outcome.