Since Kalshi gained approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to trade event contracts in early October, the company has seen close to $200 million in trades on the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, CEO Tarek Mansour shared with “Squawk Box” on CNBC.
Kalshi, the financial exchange and prediction market, has jumped to the No. 1 spot in the Apple App Store “Finance” category, replacing longtime incumbent Cash App. Mansour also added that Kalshi has reached the top 10 of the App Store-wide rankings, after the app hit No. 7 overall.
Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, and now Robinhood allow Americans to place bets on the U.S. Presidential Election
Furthermore, Kalshi’s election market enables Americans to place bets on the 2024 presidential race, joining popular competitors like Polymarket, Robinhood, and PredictIt.
Mansour highlighted that Kalshi’s U.S.-only platform is designed to bring transparency to the prediction market, helping the company to rival several offshore sportsbooks and betting platforms.
“We’re transparent, Americans-only, fully regulated,” Mansour stated, emphasizing Kalshi’s compliance focus amidst the rising popularity of election betting.
According to Mansour, Kalshi’s market also allows users to place substantially larger bets without influencing market prices, with average wagers at around $300 to $400.
“You can take millions easily without moving the price,” Mansour said, highlighting Kalshi’s flexibility and gambler-friendly system compared to other political betting platforms.
Additionally, the popularity of political prediction markets led Robinhood to introduce election event contracts as part of its product expansion. Robinhood’s contracts now allow users to wager on presidential election outcomes.
Over $100 million has been legally wagered on the presidential race via the platform
According to the site Election Betting Odds, Trump has a 62 percent chance of defeating Harris across major betting markets. FiveThirtyEight’s, the poll-based prediction model, gives Trump a 54 percent chance at winning.
Of course, Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin prices Trump at 52.9 percent. Other political betting sites still show Trump in the lead.
More than $100 million has been legally wagered on the presidential race on the platform, just days out from Election Day. To date, $2.5 billion has been bet on the presidential election on Polymarket. The CFTC’s decision made all of this a reality.
However, not everyone supports election betting. Senator Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) has called the legal decision a “huge mistake” that is a threat to American democracy.
Per NPR, Mansour also admitted that election betting isn’t a zero-risk proposition. Kalshi is federally regulated, so regulators would be able to intervene if someone tried to manipulate a market.
“Everything is super transparent and everyone can see anything you do and know your name and your address and what you’re doing and the government is monitoring,” Mansour explained. “It feels like a pretty bad place to try to do any of these things.”