Ethereum (ETH) seems poised to break through a hard ceiling of resistance as buy pressure continues to press a retracement bounce-back.
Price action in February has seen a significant local retracement (-13.8%) following January’s skyrocket +43% pump out of capitulation.
And last week, after a period of high-stakes consolidation below the 200 Day MA – bulls broke out once more.
With market frenzy ignited by talk of Chinese quantitative easing and Beijing’s apparent greenlighting of Hong Kong’s crypto ambitions.
Ethereum saw a +18.25% redemption pump pushing this rally to new local heights at $1740.
Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis
Currently trading at $1664.30 (24 hour change +1.27%) – ETH is in a key phase of resistance testing sustained by continual high buy pressure.
Indeed, buy pressure has been impressive – on-chain data reveals that Ether has been steadily moving off exchanges into cold storage for 13 days.
Exchange Net Position Change highlighting specifically how upticks in price relate to drops in balance of Ethereum on exchanges.
Accumulation of Ether in cold storage reduces sell pressure, increasing propensity for upwards price action – so these steady outflows could indicate an impending move up.
Looking further at Net Transfer Volume, we can see that the last fortnight has be largely characterised by significant Ether outflows.
That is to say, the last two weeks has seen investors accumulating more Ether in anticipation the price will go up.
Notably, on February 10 – 535, 875 ETH was pulled off exchanges (valued at $890m) – this could signify whales are accumulating.
With such overt buy pressure, it seems Ethereum is now primed for another hammer up at the current resistance ceiling around $1,750.
Could Ethereum (ETH) be heading for Death Cross?
However, Ether needs to move up quickly as the 200 Day MA is rising rapidly – and while this currently provides supportive structure things could very quickly move to become a death cross pattern.
Indeed, indicators also paint a picture of uncertainty for this rally.
The RSI is sat on the fence at 50 – at best this is indicative of ranging action, and could signal further consolidation.
But this would likely force the 20 Day MA into a foreboding collision with the 200 Day MA – a terrible omen for a remarkable rally.
The MACD muddies the waters further, sat firmly bearish at -1.46.
So despite the bullish chart structure and positive macro sentiment from the East, there is a genuine risk in Ethereum’s current posture that is worthy of concern.
Upside potential remains bullish, targeting historic resistance levels at $1,775 (representing a +6.68% move).
Downside risk is less significant, bolstered by a strong local support level (backed by the 200 Day MA) at $1,600 (-3.84%).
This provides a current Risk: Reward ratio of 1.74 for Ethereum – an attractive entry characterised by minimal downside risk.
Long positions have received reassurance from this reward structure, with a slim majority of positions leaning long over the past few days.
Despite this, open interest levels for ETH as a whole have steadily declined since the bounce-back – with Ether Bears scared off by macro sentiments.
With Ethereum targeting +6.68% gains in the short time frame, some will be disappointed at the low volatility and slow returns.
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