Ethereum just shocked the crypto community when it shot up over 7% in less than a minute. The reason behind the pump is crystal clear: well-respected Bloomberg senior analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart increased their odds of a spot Ethereum ETF approval from 25% to 75%.
If you believe the analysts, it seems like a spot Ethereum ETF is coming sooner than many of us expected after Fed chairperson Gary Gensler delayed decisions and downplayed the possibility over and over again.
Why Did the Chances of a Spot ETH ETF Increase?
No one yet knows if this information is true, though it seems like the crypto market agrees with Balchunas and Seyffart because Ethereum skyrocketed immediately after the change was announced in a Tweet.
Update: @JSeyff and I are increasing our odds of spot Ether ETF approval to 75% (up from 25%), hearing chatter this afternoon that SEC could be doing a 180 on this (increasingly political issue), so now everyone scrambling (like us everyone else assumed they'd be denied). See… https://t.co/gcxgYHz3om
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 20, 2024
The analysts said that they are hearing rumors that the SEC is about to completely change their stance on the matter out of nowhere. Balchunas specifically mentions that the issue is becoming “increasingly political” but he hasn’t yet elaborated on the specific reasoning behind the potential change.
What Happens Next?
This change in analyst views is good for Ethereum and the overall crypto market, but the SEC’s decision probably won’t arrive for some time. First, the SEC needs to approve 19b-4 forms. This step would modify the rules to permit certain applications for spot Ethereum ETFs to be approved.
Finally, the SEC would have to go through and approve or deny each S-1 application or registration statements. S-1 applications are essentially requests for a company to go public, which includes ETFs.
As soon as the SEC approves the 19b-4s rule change and the S-1 filings, spot Ethereum ETFs could be launched in a matter of hours.
Why Are Spot Ethereum ETFs So Important?
Ethereum’s price skyrocketed over 7% in a minute for good reason following the major announcement from Bloomberg’s analysts. Spot Ethereum ETFs could be absolutely massive drivers of demand for the asset, helping to push the price up.
Ethereum isn’t too difficult to invest in if you know what you are doing or you take the time to read a handy guide. However, it’s generally helpful to make investing in an asset as easy as possible.
Many more tradition-minded folks who don’t trust crypto exchanges with their SSN or their payment information will still want exposure to assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This could include institutional investors from hedge funds and family offices to pension funds and more.
This idea has already been proven correct (at least in the short term) by the resounding success of Bitcoin spot ETFs.
Bitcoin spot ETFs are already seeing tremendous volume, hitting $200 billion over a month ago. This has almost certainly helped push Bitcoin’s price up significantly. If Ethereum spot ETFs manage to capture even a fraction of that volume, ETH might hit all-time highs again before you know it.