According to the latest betting odds from Kalshi markets, Republican nominee Donald Trump is currently slated to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election against Democratic candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Former President Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris in six key swing states, per Kalshi
Former President Trump is leading in key swing states like Arizona (73 percent), Georgia (72 percent), Michigan (54 percent), Nevada (61 percent), Pennsylvania (57 percent), and Wisconsin (53 percent).
Bovada, an offshore sportsbook and iGaming platform, shows Trump with -185 odds over Harris (+160). Although the Democratic Party has better odds (-250) of winning the popular vote, the Republican Party (-185) is the favored party to win the election.
British gambling company bet365 has Trump (-188) as the clear-cut betting favorite over Harris (+150) as well. Trump’s implied probability is 65.2 percent, while Harris’ is 40 percent.
Increasingly popular election betting platform Polymarket is also reporting enormous wagers, including multiple eight-figure bets on Trump to defeat Harris.
“More than two billion dollars have been bet on the election already,” Maxim Lott, who runs ElectionBettingOdds.com, told Fox News Digital.
The crypto-based Polymarket gives Trump a 66 percent chance of edging Harris, the first time his odds have risen over 65 percent since July 21, the day President Joe Biden dropped his reelection bid.
Betting odds, polls now favor Trump
Additionally, PredictIt is now showing 57 percent market-implied odds for Trump. Note that Kalshi favored Harris as recently as Oct. 9, PredictIt as recently as Oct. 8, and Polymarket as recently as Oct. 4.
Bloomberg reported the news Tuesday, citing unnamed sources. Polymarket operates as an offshore betting operator, unlike Kalshi and PredictIt.
Corroborating a Friday report in Reuters, Bloomberg added that the $43 million placed on Trump and other victorious Republican election bets across four Polymarket accounts are not based domestically, per an anonymous source.
According to Kalshi, Republicans also hold an 83 percent chance to win the Senate. However, the party is split at 50 percent for the House. Republicans also have a 46 percent chance of a sweep for both the Senate and House.
Other popular polling-based prediction models like Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin and FiveThirtyEight both give Harris and Trump 50 percent respective odds to win the election.
Overall, it is worth mentioning that polls are typically biased, inaccurate, and misleading. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 despite having a 17 percent betting market-implied winning probability.
Not enough of the general voting population participates in polls.