After President Joe Biden’s struggles in the televised debate against his Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump, speculation has grown that the party might choose to replace Biden as its candidate for the next elections. Although a few prominent Democrats have been mentioned, the Vice President, Kamala Harris, appears to be the most likely option.
The speculation has prompted questions about where she stands on various topics including one that is relevant to the financial industry – cryptocurrencies. Here’s everything we know about what a Harris presidency might mean for the crypto market.
Biden’s Debate Performance and its Aftermath
The recent political debate between Biden and Trump was labeled “disastrous” by nearly everyone. The 81-year-old current president had a hard time giving clear answers to key questions about his policies and opinions, appeared weak at times, and even lost his train of thought several times during the event.
A poll conducted by the New York Times showcased that three-quarters of voters believe that Biden is too old for the job – a 5% climb compared to previous periods. Even worse, pretty much all of the major polling that has been done since the debate has Biden down terribly against his opponent, both in terms of likely voters and individual battleground states.
Moreover, another poll from CNN showed that three-quarters of US voters believe that Democrats stand a better chance to win the elections if they appoint someone else to run as their candidate.
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Pressures from within the party have started to emerge and Biden is surely feeling the heat as at least four Democrats who approached and spoke with Axios said that they believe he should withdraw from the race.
Moreover, the former Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, told MSNBC recently that concerns about Biden’s ability to lead the country based on what was seen during the debate are “completely legitimate”. This was a shock to many as Pelosi is famously a loyal establishment democrat who almost never strays from the party line.
Where Does Kamala Harris Stand When it Comes to Crypto?
As the party and voters debate who could replace Biden, one name stands out as an obvious choice – VP Kamala Harris.
According to Reuters, sources close to the White House, the Democratic National Committee, and President Biden’s campaigns said that Harris leads all internal polls if Biden opts to drop his candidacy.
If she takes the baton, what could this mean for the crypto space? Interestingly, Harris has not been vocal about her thoughts on this matter nor has she made comments on record about it.
Based on her financial disclosures and those from her husband, they clearly don’t embrace cryptocurrencies as part of their investment choices as they have zero exposure to the sector.
In fact, she appears to be on the conservative side when it comes to investment choices, limiting her portfolio to Treasury bonds and emerging markets securities.
That said, Harris has strong ties with the tech industry are strong. For example, she has received donations from tech executives including the legal counsel of Amazon (AMZN) and LinkedIn’s founder Reid Hoffman.
Moreover, Harris employed the former CTO of the Sacramento Kings, Ryan Montoya, as her director of scheduling and advance during the 2020 election campaign.
During Montoya’s tenure, the Kings became the first sports team to accept Bitcoin (BTC). Is Kamala a crypto-friendly candidate? The jury is still out on that one as there’s little evidence or indication that she is – or isn’t.
The Crypto Industry’s Perspective
Cody Carbone, vice president of policy for the Chamber of Digital Commerce, commented on the potential candidates’ views on crypto. Regarding Harris, Carbone said: “I take it as, those candidates who haven’t said anything about crypto gives me hope and optimism that they could be a blank slate on crypto, and if that’s the case, then hopefully they’re open to education.”
With crypto lobbying efforts heating up and Wall Street banks joining the pack to help the industry advance, it could make sense for Harris to come out as pro-Bitcoin ahead of a tough presidential race. Alternatively, she could pursue the same policies as Biden and give crypto the cold shoulder.
The Rise of the ‘Kamala Horris’ Meme Coin
A meme coin named ‘Kamala Horris’ has experienced a staggering surge in its price amid the speculation about Harris’s potential to replace Biden in the presidential race.
The Solana-based token, marketed with a poorly drawn cartoon of the US vice president, has seen its market cap grow to $13.4 million as of today while at some point it jumped to over $22 million according to data from Dex Screener.
Since the presidential debate on June 27, the price of the token moved from $0.0018 to $0.022 at some point on Wednesday, producing a remarkable 1,122% gain. However, the price has progressively retreated to $0.0138 as of this morning.
Moreover, the ‘Kamala Horris’ (KAMA) token gained nearly 250% on Thursday as Biden started to be pressured to drop out of the campaign after his poor performance in the debate.
It’s worth noting that this surge occurred despite Harris’s lack of involvement or public stance on the cryptocurrency industry, highlighting the unpredictable and volatile nature of meme coins and the cryptocurrency market as a whole.
Meanwhile, a well-known politically-themed meme coin named Jeo Boden (BODEN) that parodies President Biden saw a 15% decline in value in the past 24 hours and accumulates a 62.2% loss in the past 7 days according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Replacing Biden Opens Up the Door for Chaos for Democrats
Although speculation is rampant at the time, a move of this nature – replacing Biden with Harris – would be unprecedented and complex. First of all, Biden would have to agree to withdraw from the race. This could result in a “free for all” kind of contest, according to John Aughenbaugh, a political sciences professor from the Virginia Commonwealth University.
“At that point, any number of challengers could present themselves as a potential nominee. And it should be noted, time is of the essence if the Party decides to go this route, as the Convention is less than two months away,” Aughenbaugh said. The convention is when the delegates formally choose the candidate.
Meanwhile, despite the mounting pressure, Biden has publicly stated his intention to remain in the race. “Let me say this as clearly as I possibly can — as simply and straightforward as I can: I am running,” Biden said on a Zoom call that took place on July 3 with his campaign team. “No one’s pushing me out. I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end.”
Polymarket Odds Increase for Harris
According to Polymarkets, a crypto-based prediction market, Kamala Harris currently leads the odds of becoming the Democratic candidate for 2024 according to an open wager that ends on August 21 and that has already received a total of $87.19 million from bettors. This is a colossal shift as it seemed that Biden was surely going to continue in the race before his disaster of a debate performance.
Harris has jumped as the most favored Democratic candidate in this wager with odds of 42% followed by Joe Biden with 38% as the latest developments have apparently affected the public’s perception and support for him as questions continue to be raised about his mental fitness and electibilty.
Other Potential Candidates
While Harris is seen as the frontrunner to replace Biden, other potential candidates have also been mentioned. According to experts, the list would include California’s Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, the former First Lady Michelle Obama, and Representative Dean Phillips from Minnesota.
Each of these potential candidates has different opinions about the cryptocurrency industry.
Newsom, for instance, has taken a somewhat neutral stance after signing an executive order in May 2022 that aimed to create a framework for the industry to foster innovation and help it grow within the boundaries of the law. Brown, on the other hand, has been critical of crypto over the years, expressing concerns about the industry’s lack of consumer protections.
Also read: Trump Calls Himself the “Crypto President” – Would He Be Better for Crypto?
“I’m looking for candidates this cycle, not necessarily to have an opinion pro or against crypto, but to be pro-innovation and US leadership and I think if we can get there, then they’ll end up being pro blockchain and pro crypto in the process,” Carbone commented about how he views candidate and their opinion concerning the crypto industry.
Biden’s replacement could have far-reaching implications not just for crypto but also for the Democratic party’s odds of winning the election if Donald Trump’s ultimate contender lacks the support that the current president still has.
Moreover, a new leader, Democrat or Republican, could bring a policy change. Trump is considered a pro-crypto President while Biden is viewed as a much less supportive figure in the industry. Harris, on the other hand, remains a question mark. It wouldn’t be surprising that her view on the market would track with Biden’s but we just don’t know yet.
“When you look at all of the candidates that are discussed for the top of the ticket in the Democratic Party, most of them don’t have an opinion on crypto, and that needs to change, like that has to change yesterday,” Carbone concludes.